The Evolution of Land Subsidence Under the New Water Regime in the North China Plain: A TS-InSAR and Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis

The North China Plain (NCP) has entered a “New Water Regime” driven by water diversions, stringent groundwater management, and climatic fluctuations, resulting in the widespread recovery of regional groundwater levels. How land subsidence has responded spatiotemporally to these interventions remains unclear. To quantify the regional hydrogeological responses, we integrated Time-Series Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (TS-InSAR) observations spanning 2016–2023 with weighted centroid tracking and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHA) based on a Space-Time Cube. Centroid tracking indicated that the regional subsidence center remained spatially stable without significant directional drift. In the western and southern regions, Persistent and Intensifying Cold Spots dominated, corresponding to ground stabilization and rebound. In the central-eastern centers, 26.80% and 6.47% of the statistically significant clustering area were Persistent and Intensifying Hot Spots, reflecting continuous localized compaction, with Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope analyses indicating a decelerating trend within these clusters. A further 4.92% and 9.63% were Diminishing and Historical Hot Spots, indicating reduced clustering after 2019. Overall, subsidence has decelerated markedly across most of the plain, yet compaction inertia in thick clay layers sustains localized hot spots despite rebounding groundwater levels. This time-lag response implies that short-term water-level recovery cannot immediately reverse subsidence, necessitating sustained groundwater management across the NCP.