LAB #2297 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 37.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 37.8% (+6.2pp, n=98) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a DISTRIBUTION-phase filter would have excluded most trades in the current window, since the dates (July 29 – Aug 6, 2026) likely fall in a non-distribution phase. Of the 10 live trades, roughly 6–7 would have been blocked, including the two XAUUSD losses and the GBPUSD loss, but also the AUDUSD and USDCAD wins. Net effect on this small sample: win rate would improve (fewer losing trades), but absolute PnL could drop because the filtered-out winners (AUDUSD, USDCAD) would be missed. Expected win-rate delta here is roughly +10–15pp on remaining trades, but PnL impact is ambiguous due to small n. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter would reduce trade frequency substantially (likely 40–60% fewer signals), which could improve win rate but may also cut total profit if the strat Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com