Analysis of Food Sovereignty in Indonesia: Macroeconomic Data

Indonesia, an archipelagic nation, faces significant challenges in achieving food sovereignty due to low agricultural productivity and high dependence on food imports. This study analyzes the impact of the number of farmers (NFARM), rice productivity, food imports, government food reserves, and food price stability (STAB) on food sovereignty. Using panel data analysis with provincial data as a cross-section and food sovereignty index data from 2018 to 2023, the results showed that based on Common Effect Model and Random Effect Model estimates, NFARM significantly and positively influenced food sovereignty. Non-oil and gas food imports had large and negative effects. Fixed Effect Model estimation showed that variations among the 34 provinces had a significant effect. Meanwhile, the independent variables—NFARM, rice productivity, non-oil and gas food imports and STAB—had no effect. The best model, according to the Chow and Hausman tests, was Fixed Effect Model, demonstrating that Indonesian entities or modifications of the food sovereignty index contributed substantially to food sovereignty. Only 11 provinces had a food sovereignty index above the national average. To enhance food sovereignty, Indonesia must prioritize technological innovations to boost domestic productivity. These findings offer policy insights into strengthening local resource-based agricultural production to reduce dependence on food imports. Additionally, the government needs to maintain STAB, particularly for rice, while making technological innovation a top priority in agricultural development. This study adds global insight into sustainable agriculture policy by offering in-depth information on the variables that affect Indonesia's food sovereignty.