Digital economy, agricultural value chain resilience, and China’s cotton industry: evidence from provincial panel data, 2011 to 2023

Against rising global supply-chain uncertainty and recurring shocks to China’s cotton sector, this study examines whether digital-economy development is associated with resilience in China’s cotton agricultural value chain. Using panel data for 16 provinces from 2011 to 2023, we construct composite indices and estimate two-way fixed-effects models, supplemented by mediation, moderation, robustness, instrumental-variable, and threshold analyses. In the full specification, a 0.10-point increase in the digital-economy index is associated with a 0.0452-point increase in resilience, equivalent to about 0.60 of the observed standard deviation of resilience. The positive association also appears across secure development, shock resistance, recovery and adaptation, and renewal and transformation. Mechanism tests are consistent with partial transmission through industrial structure upgrading, while policy-attention measures strengthen the positive association. Threshold estimates suggest a nonlinear interval pattern, although the thresholds are closely spaced and the middle-interval coefficients are only weakly significant. These findings provide sector-specific evidence for a strategically important agricultural value chain and support investment in digital capacity, structural upgrading, and appropriately coordinated policy, while cautioning against inefficient digital investment.