Will They or Won’t They? Exploring Pedestrian Dilemma Zones in a Virtual Reality Crossing Experiment

Pedestrian fatalities in the United States rose 80% between 2009 and 2023, far outpacing the 13% increase in all other traffic deaths. A pedestrian’s ability to distinguish crossable from non-crossable gaps varies with the time between the pedestrian and an oncoming vehicle. Intermediate gaps can create uncertainty, leading to riskier decisions. This range is called the dilemma zone. While the dilemma zone has been studied in naturalistic environments, no work has systematically examined it in a controlled virtual environment. The proposed study uses virtual reality to manipulate vehicle speed and size and to explore how judgment certainty shifts within the dilemma zone. Sixty participants will complete a three-phase, within-subjects experiment estimating walking speed, critical gap, and crossing decisions across gap sizes. We hypothesize that larger and faster vehicles will increase both the critical gap and the width of the dilemma zone. Findings may inform roadway design and traffic-calming strategies.