Analysis of drought dynamics in selected Woredas of Hadiya zone, Central Ethiopia

As drought intensifies across Eastern Africa, localized empirical evidence remains critically scarce on the spatiotemporal patterns and future project for Hadiya zone leaves its rain-dependent and a hidden trajectory of community toward food insecurity. Using monthly rainfall data, this study examined the space-time drought events in Hadiya Zone, Central Ethiopia. Additionally, its projected drought occurrences for 100 years. Long-term data were acquired from the global dataset, the Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS). The drought severity classes of the rainy season were calculated at 1-, 4-, and 8-month time scales using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall test were utilized to detect trends. Inverse Distance Weighted spatial analysis was used to demonstrate patterns of drought risk events. In 2009, the study area experienced severe drought during both the short rainy season (February-May, known as Belg ) and the main rainy season (June-September, known as Kiremt ). Based on rainfall trends and drought index analysis, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2022 were the driest Kiremt seasons. The results indicated that within the moderate drought severity class, drought risk events during the Belg season were more frequent than during the Kiremt season, as rainfall during these months was substantially below the long-term average. The results revealed that moderate drought events occurred more frequently during the Belg season than during the Kiremt season. In different seasonal intervals, drought risk occurrences were more often in the zone, especially during the Belg and Kiremt seasons. Over the course of February to September, drought frequency events were more common in the entire Hadiya zone as a single rain-fed agricultural livelihood system. Therefore, drought risk management requires an archive based on the livelihood zones and an evaluation of drought risk management. Finally, the study recommends further investigation into additional climatic variable indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and socioeconomic impact assessments to enhance adaptive capacity in this drought-vulnerable region.