Impact of car scrappage schemes across the European Union countries in 2009–2013

This article examines the economic effects of car scrappage schemes implemented across European Union countries in relation to the 2008–2009 economic crisis. While scrappage programmes have frequently been used as countercyclical policy tools, existing evidence for Europe remains fragmented and offers limited insight into whether such schemes generated genuine increases in demand or merely shifted car purchases across time. Using monthly data on new passenger car registrations between 2005 and 2013, the paper analyses scrappage schemes introduced in 13 EU countries. The study evaluates the timing and magnitude of policy effects by distinguishing between anticipation, treatment, and post-treatment periods and by comparing observed outcomes with carefully constructed counterfactuals. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in policy effectiveness across countries. Scrappage schemes led to statistically significant increases in new car registrations in several EU member states, while no significant effects are observed in others. Importantly, the analysis finds no systematic evidence of anticipation or immediate pull-forward effects surrounding the implementation of the schemes. Our findings, which are based on a combination of synthetic control and difference-in-differences methods, highlight the importance of institutional context and policy design in shaping the outcomes of temporary demand-side interventions.