Intelligence-Led Policing and Forensic Investigation as Predictors of Crime Control by the Nigeria Police Force in The South-South Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria

The Nigeria Police Force (NPF) in the South-South geopolitical zone operates in one of the most security-challenged regions in Nigeria, characterized by oil bunkering, kidnapping, armed robbery, cultism, and cybercrime. Despite several reform initiatives, crime control outcomes remain unsatisfactory, pointing to systemic weaknesses in criminal investigation strategies. This study examined intelligence-led policing and forensic investigation as predictors of crime control by the NPF in the South-South geopolitical zone. A predictive correlational research design was adopted. The population comprised 3,872 police personnel in criminal investigation units across the six states of the zone, from which 900 respondents were drawn using stratified random sampling. Data were collected using a validated structured questionnaire and analyzed with simple linear regression and Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (PPMC) at the 0.05 significance level. Findings revealed that intelligence-led policing significantly predicts crime control in terms of crime detection (F = .020, p < .05), crime prevention (F = .085, p < .05), prosecution efficiency (F = 9.391, R² = .299, p < .05), and public safety assurance (F = 3.507, R² = .138, p < .05). Similarly, forensic investigation has a statistically significant positive relationship with all crime control dimensions: crime detection (r = .062, p < .05), crime prevention (r = .079, p < .05), prosecution efficiency (r = .421, p < .05), public safety assurance (r = .298, p < .05), and overall crime control (r = .356, p < .05). Anchored in Problem-Oriented Policing theory and Crime Control theory, these findings underscore the indispensability of intelligence-driven and forensic-based investigative approaches in achieving effective crime control. The study recommends the institutionalization of intelligence fusion centres, sustained investment in forensic infrastructure, regular personnel training, and formalized inter-agency collaboration protocols for the NPF in the South-South zone.