Policy Thresholds for Effective Integration: Does Political Stability Shape the Sustainable Development Gains of Regional Trade Integration in Africa?

ABSTRACT Africa faces rising political tensions and uneven progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising concerns over whether the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can deliver sustainable development gains. Using data on 42 African countries from 2014 to 2023, this paper examines whether political stability conditioned the impact of regional trade integration on sustainable development in Africa. The study uses dynamic panel threshold regression, supplemented by a two‐way fixed‐effects interaction model. The findings established minimum political stability thresholds of 33.47% for regional trade integration (RTI) and 38.26% for intraregional trade shares (IRTS) to yield sustainable development gains. Additionally, the results revealed strong persistence of sustainable development, especially in politically unstable environments. Thus, maintaining a more politically stable environment mitigates the sustainable development trade‐offs associated with trade integration in Africa. The study adds to the political economy literature by establishing the political stability thresholds for effective integration in Africa. Related Articles Ceesay, Almamo, and Antun Mardiyanta. 2026. “From Policy Reform to Strategic Governance Reconfiguration: Pathways to Sustainable Development in Africa.” Politics & Policy 54(4): e70165. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70165 . Adegboye, Alex, Kofo Adegboye, Uwalomwa Uwuigbe, Stephen Ojeka, and Eyitemi Fasanu. 2023. “Taxation, democracy, and inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Relevant linkages for sustainable development goals.” Politics & Policy 51(4): 696‐722. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12547 . Villanueva Ulfgard, Rebecka. 2019. “Mexico’s Struggle with Development between Global Compromises and National Development Plans.” Politics & Policy 47, no. 1: 50–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12288 . JEL Classification: F13, F15, F63, F68, Q01