An analytical stochastic stage-structured model for pest population dynamics: a case study on Cydia pomonella in Italy

Abstract In this work, we propose a novel phenological model to describe population dynamics based on a compound Poisson process driven development. The model offers an alternative to other well-established approaches founded on systems of ordinary or partial differential equations, in which, the stochasticity is driven by the Brownian motion. A key advantage of the proposed framework is that it prevents the age regression of individuals and allows for the analytical derivation of the number of individuals in each developmental stage into which the population is structured. The model is applied to Cydia pomonella , a major pest of pome fruit crops. The results obtained are highly promising and suggest that this approach constitutes a valuable alternative to traditional models based on partial differential equations for simulating the population dynamics.