A Statistical Methodology for the Forecasting and Detection of Solar Outages in Broadband VSAT Networks

The primary objective of this paper is to present a statistical methodology for forecasting, detecting, and analysing the solar outage phenomenon in broadband satellite networks employing VSATs. The methodology is particularly applicable to High Throughput Satellite (HTS) and Very High Throughput Satellite (VHTS) systems operating in the Ka band; however, it can also be successfully applied to other satellite communication systems and frequency bands. In the existing literature, the solar outage phenomenon is generally regarded as an inherent limitation of satellite links and is rarely analysed in detail, resulting in a research gap in the design of resilient information and communication systems. This paper addresses this gap by demonstrating the periodic characteristics of the phenomenon and presenting technical procedures that enable its forecasting and reliable detection. The proposed methodology provides a basis for mitigating the effects of signal degradation in both adaptive and non-adaptive satellite communication systems, thereby improving link stability and service continuity. From a broader perspective, the proposed approach supports the development of secure and resilient broadband satellite networks, contributing to enhanced service availability and helping to reduce digital and technological exclusion.