Understanding Agricultural Labour Productivity in Kazakhstan: Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships with Government Expenditure, Agricultural Credit, and Inflation

Improving agricultural labour productivity is essential for enhancing agricultural competitiveness, rural development, and long-term economic sustainability, particularly in transition economies where agriculture continues to play a strategic role. Although previous studies have examined the roles of agricultural finance, government support, and macroeconomic conditions separately, limited evidence exists on their joint long-run and short-run relationships with agricultural labour productivity in Kazakhstan. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationships between government expenditure, agricultural credit, inflation, and agricultural labour productivity using annual data for the period 2004–2025. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to distinguish between long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics. Prior to estimation, stationarity is examined using augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, while the Bai–Perron multiple structural breakpoint test is used to account for structural change. The robustness of the long-run estimates is further evaluated using fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The findings indicate the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Government expenditure is positively associated with agricultural labour productivity in both the long run and the short run, whereas agricultural credit exhibits a negative long-run association and no statistically significant short-run relationship. Inflation is not found to be significantly associated with agricultural labour productivity within the estimated model. The robustness estimators produce results that are broadly consistent with the ARDL findings, while diagnostic and stability tests confirm the adequacy of the estimated model. By jointly examining fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic factors, explicitly accounting for structural change, and validating the long-run estimates using alternative cointegration estimators, this study provides updated country-specific evidence on agricultural labour productivity in Kazakhstan and contributes to the broader literature on agricultural productivity in transition economies.