Limited affordability gains from Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana in Rural Madhya Pradesh, India evidence from an Ordered Logit and Probit Analysis

This study examines the impact of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) on energy affordability among below-poverty-line households in rural Madhya Pradesh, with relevance to Sustainable Development Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy). Using primary data from 279 households collected through stratified random sampling, the research applies Ordered Logit and Ordered Probit models to analyse changes in cooking fuel affordability, measured as an ordinal dependent variable ranging from decreased (worsened affordability) to increased affordability levels. The findings show that PMUY has not led to a substantial improvement in overall energy affordability, as a majority of households report either no change or worsened affordability, alongside continued reliance on traditional fuels (fuel stacking). At the same time, affordability outcomes are influenced by household-level factors: higher income, female household headship, and the use of smaller LPG cylinders increase the likelihood of being in higher affordability categories, while nuclear family structures reduce it. However, these positive effects are modest in magnitude and insufficient to offset the overall distribution of responses. Overall, while PMUY has expanded access to clean cooking energy and contributed to progress toward SDG 7, it has not ensured affordability for many households, limiting sustained use. This also constrains broader benefits related to health (SDG 3), gender empowerment (SDG 5), and climate action (SDG 13). The findings point to the need for policy measures that go beyond connections, including more reliable subsidy delivery, flexible payment options such as smaller refills or pay-as-you-go systems, and region-specific interventions. Strengthening these aspects is essential for achieving inclusive and durable clean energy transitions in rural India.