LAB #2242 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.0% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.0% (+4.3pp, n=425) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the 10 live trades above would have blocked the three XAUUSD SHORTs (all losses) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.34508, if phase distance was wide). That removes 4 losses from the sample, leaving 6 trades with 4 wins (AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY SHORT, EURJPY LONG, GBPUSD LONG — actually 5 wins if GBPUSD LONG stays). Net effect: win rate jumps from ~50% (5/10) to ~83% (5/6) on the surviving trades, and PnL improves by roughly +3R (avoiding 4 losses at ~1R each). However, the filter also risks blocking valid winners if phase distance is tight but momentum is strong — none of the current winners appear to be blocked, so the immediate delta is positive. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will reduce trade frequency subs Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22762495
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint