Analysis of retail resilience in Seoul's neighborhood commercial districts Amidst the COVID-19 shock

This study examines the economic resilience of neighborhood commercial districts in Seoul in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Moving beyond static before–after comparisons, we employ a Panel Interrupted Time Series (Panel ITS) design to separately identify (i) the immediate level shift at the onset of the shock, conceptualized as resistance, and (ii) the subsequent change in the growth trajectory as conditions transitioned toward the endemic phase, conceptualized as recoverability. The results show that structural diversity, operationalized via Shannon's entropy, functions as a key buffering mechanism: it attenuates initial revenue losses and is associated with a steeper post-shock recovery trend. Importantly, we also document pronounced spatial heterogeneity across Seoul's five major sub-markets. Central business districts exhibit heightened exposure and larger initial downturns, while recovery trajectories vary across sub-markets. Taken together, these findings imply that urban management should complement place-based physical upgrading with ecosystem-oriented strategies—specifically, “portfolio diversification” approaches that strengthen sectoral complexity and reduce systemic vulnerability within local commercial ecosystems.