PQOD · VBG — WP-01 — Closed-Loop Steering for Gender-Based Violence Policy: A Preregistered Quantum-Operator Audit of France's Response Chain (2016–2026)

White paper of the PQOD programme (series « PQOD · VBG », WP-01), September 2026 — EMBARGOED until 2027-09-15. We audit France's policy against gender-based violence as a dynamical system: the response chain (victimisation → reporting → prosecution → conviction) is modelled by transition operators estimated on real administrative data (SSMSI monthly recordings 2016M01–2026M07, INSEE victimisation surveys, Ministry of Justice convictions, Eurostat intimate-partner homicide panel FR/DE/ES/IT/SE), under a preregistered and hashed protocol (SHA-256, seed 20260915, 10 000 bootstrap replicates) with a prior-art Blue Ocean gate (5 GO). Findings: the disclosure rate is not on track for a 50 % 2030 target (expected 36.1 % [20.4 ; 53.8]); the shortfall is 13.9 points ≈ 49 700 undisclosed victims per year; the operational rectification dose is 2.80 points per year ≈ 10 037 additional disclosed victims per year (robust forcing f = 0.404 per year). Instrument order is non-commutative (4/4 European episodes, bootstrap distance excluding zero, mean sequence effect compatible with zero). A massive CUSUM regime break is dated 2022M01 after Holm correction. The spectral delay predictor is refuted (ΔR² CI [−0.226 ; +0.074]) and permanently abandoned. All figures reproducible: preregistered thresholds, sourced public data, executable code, refuted hypotheses recorded with the same precision as confirmed ones.