A financial conditions index for Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper constructs a monthly Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2019–2025, combining domestic and global financial indicators. The index captures co-movement in regional financial conditions, from COVID-era easing to post-2023 tightening and a recent easing in financial conditions after the April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’. Panel estimates show that the composite FCI predicts short-term economic activity, beyond what is captured by its individual components. The FCI thus provides a high-frequency tool for tracking domestic and external drivers of regional financial conditions and macro-financial risks in a data-constrained region.

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Publication Details

Journal
Applied Economics Letters
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2026.2733773
Primary Topic
Economic Growth and Development
Type
article
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A financial conditions index for Sub-Saharan Africa

Can Sever, A. de Sy
Applied Economics Letters
Economic Growth and Development
article

A financial conditions index for Sub-Saharan Africa

Can Sever, A. de Sy
article en

Abstract

This paper constructs a monthly Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2019–2025, combining domestic and global financial indicators. The index captures co-movement in regional financial conditions, from COVID-era easing to post-2023 tightening and a recent easing in financial conditions after the April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’. Panel estimates show that the composite FCI predicts short-term economic activity, beyond what is captured by its individual components. The FCI thus provides a high-frequency tool for tracking domestic and external drivers of regional financial conditions and macro-financial risks in a data-constrained region.

Applied Economics Letters
International Monetary Fund (US)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Economic Growth and Development
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