Economic contribution of organic and inorganic fertilizers to sorghum profitability in Tanzania: market and value chain implications under alternative price

Purpose Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is a key food-security and climate-resilient crop in Tanzania's semi-arid regions, yet its profitability remains constrained by poor soil fertility, low input adoption, and unstable grain markets. Despite policy emphasis on promoting fertilizers, there is limited evidence on the comparative profitability of organic and inorganic fertilizers under varying market conditions. This study evaluates how fertilizer use and price variability influence sorghum profitability in Tanzania. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a probabilistic profitability framework grounded in production economics and risk analysis. Using nationally representative data from the 2019/20 National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA), a Multivariate Empirical stochastic simulation model was applied to estimate profitability distributions across three fertilizer-use systems: no fertilizer, organic fertilizer and inorganic fertilizer. Yield variability, production costs and output price fluctuations were incorporated into the simulations. Findings Inorganic fertilizers generated the highest profitability, with up to a 66% probability of exceeding TZS 850,000 ha−1 and a 32% probability of surpassing TZS 2,000,000 ha−1 under favorable prices. Organic fertilizers produced only modest short-term gains, while profitability across all systems remained highly sensitive to output-price conditions. Research limitations/implications The study relies on cross-sectional data and simulated price regimes, limiting its ability to assess long-term market and soil dynamics. Originality/value The study provides the first nationally representative stochastic profitability assessment of fertilizer strategies in Tanzanian sorghum systems.