LAB #2243 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% (+1.6pp, n=159) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose entry phase distance fell outside that band. Among the 10 listed trades, the three XAUUSD SHORTs (all losses) and the USDJPY SHORT (still open) are the most likely candidates for exclusion if their phase distances were outside 5–10° — but without per-trade phase data, we can only estimate. If the filter removed 3 of the 4 losing closed trades (XAUUSD losses), the window's win rate would jump from 5/9 closed (55.6%) to 5/6 (83.3%), and PnL would improve by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ~1R). However, if it also excluded the two winning AUDUSD and USDCAD trades, the effect would be negative — so the net delta is highly sensitive to which trades actually fall in the 5–10° band. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-15
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22762489
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint