LAB #2243 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% (+1.6pp, n=159) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose entry phase distance fell outside that band. Among the 10 listed trades, the three XAUUSD SHORTs (all losses) and the USDJPY SHORT (still open) are the most likely candidates for exclusion if their phase distances were outside 5–10° — but without per-trade phase data, we can only estimate. If the filter removed 3 of the 4 losing closed trades (XAUUSD losses), the window's win rate would jump from 5/9 closed (55.6%) to 5/6 (83.3%), and PnL would improve by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ~1R). However, if it also excluded the two winning AUDUSD and USDCAD trades, the effect would be negative — so the net delta is highly sensitive to which trades actually fall in the 5–10° band. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22762489
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2243 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2243 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% (+1.6pp, n=159) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the current live window would have excluded trades whose entry phase distance fell outside that band. Among the 10 listed trades, the three XAUUSD SHORTs (all losses) and the USDJPY SHORT (still open) are the most likely candidates for exclusion if their phase distances were outside 5–10° — but without per-trade phase data, we can only estimate. If the filter removed 3 of the 4 losing closed trades (XAUUSD losses), the window's win rate would jump from 5/9 closed (55.6%) to 5/6 (83.3%), and PnL would improve by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ~1R). However, if it also excluded the two winning AUDUSD and USDCAD trades, the effect would be negative — so the net delta is highly sensitive to which trades actually fall in the 5–10° band. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Reduced inequalities
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2243 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS