Case Study: Effectively Communicating Modeling Uncertainty to Communities Affected by Cryospheric Hazards – A Look at Interdisciplinary Collaboration Regarding Mendenhall Glacier Lake Outburst Floods in Juneau, Alaska

Cryospheric hazards are natural phenomena that are highly sensitive to climate change impacts and can have devastating impacts on surrounding communities. The rate of glacial change and loss under climate change is unprecedented and can result in more severe glacial hazards globally. Understanding and modelling these dynamic processes pose major scientific challenges, with significant implications for affected residents, businesses, and decision-makers. Various stakeholders need to understand evolving cryospheric hazards across annual to decadal time scales, which can conflict with the spatial and temporal scale of current cryospheric modelling approaches. Therefore, there is an increasing need for cryospheric models and projections to meet a variety of decision-making needs. This chapter highlights the need for interdisciplinary collaboration among physical scientists, social scientists, and stakeholders to co-produce actionable knowledge on cryospheric hazards, specifically glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We present reflections from a case study in Juneau, Alaska, where annual GLOFs have impacted the community for over a decade. There, scientists, agencies, and community members work together to improve preparedness and advance understanding to better model future events. Lessons from Juneau, especially following recent destructive GLOFs, identify critical directions for research and collaboration relevant to other communities affected by cryospheric hazards.