Stress-tolerant maize under drought: heterogeneous effects on productivity and food security in Zimbabwe

Abstract Stress-tolerant crop varieties are widely promoted to enhance the resilience of smallholder farming systems under increasing climate variability. By stabilizing production under adverse conditions, such varieties may contribute to improved food security. However, evidence on realized benefits among resource-poor and women farmers remains limited. This study examines the associations between stress-tolerant maize (STM) adoption, yield, and household food security during the El Niño-induced drought of 2023/24 in Zimbabwe. Using survey data from 435 households and 542 plots, we assess STM performance across smallholder production contexts. Results show that STM adoption is associated with positive mean effects on maize yields and moderate but consistent reductions in food insecurity. Yield gains are concentrated around the median of the distribution, suggesting that STM primarily stabilizes production under intermediate stress conditions rather than preventing crop failure under extreme drought. Associations between STM adoption and food security are strongest among households cultivating small maize areas close to the homestead, where management intensity is higher. We do not find differential effects in households where women are the primary decision-makers in maize production. Women’s decision-making over maize use is positively associated with dietary diversity, indicating that such roles may influence food consumption outcomes through channels not directly linked to STM adoption. Overall, STM can contribute to more stable production and improved food security, but realized benefits are associated with farm context and agronomic management. Targeted promotion of STM in suitable agroecological zones, combined with complementary agronomic practices can enhance its contribution to inclusive and sustainable agricultural development.