Developmental cascades of daily living skills matter for adult outcomes in autism

Abstract Daily living skills (DLS) predict adult success for autistic individuals. However, most research on DLS in autism relies on cross-sectional data and DLS summary scores, limiting understanding of how specific skills across development relate to adult outcomes. Using longitudinal data from autistic adults ( n = 232, 19% female, 69% White) followed from early childhood into their early thirties (m age = 32.6 years, SD = 7.58, range 19–35), this study used machine learning techniques to identify item-level DLS from ages 5 ( n = 123), 9 ( n = 152), 14 ( n = 154), and 18 ( n = 143) that predicted adult employment, residential status, social relationships, and well-being. DLS items demonstrated predictive utility for employment (age 9 model R 2 = .557) and social relationships (age 14 model ROC AUC = .839). Notably, DLS measured at age 5 explained a large proportion of variance in adult vocational outcomes ( R 2 = .507). Predictive strength for residential status increased across development (age 18 model ROC AUC = .906), whereas DLS showed limited association with subjective well-being (age 14 model R 2 = .096). Community-based skills (e.g., money use, telephone skills) consistently emerged as top predictors. Findings are interpreted within a developmental cascade framework, highlighting how DLS competencies in childhood and adolescence may inform experiences for autistic adults.