Effects of conspiracy beliefs, trust in government, and perceived government response on COVID-19 vaccination in European countries

Aims: Although the effects of conspiracy beliefs and trust in government on COVID-19 vaccination behavior have been analyzed in numerous studies, the interrelationships between these factors and the mechanisms through which they influence vaccination behavior remain underexplored. We hypothesized that conspiracy beliefs are negatively associated with trust in government, which is subsequently and positively associated with attitudes toward and satisfaction with government response, ultimately affecting vaccination behavior. Methods: For this cross-sectional multilevel study, data were collected from the 10th round (2022) of the European Social Survey. Participants from 18 countries who completed the COVID-19 module of this survey were included in the analysis ( N = 27,983). Data were analyzed using a two-step approach, combining generalized linear mixed models with random intercept and structural equation models. Results: Conspiracy beliefs were negatively associated with trust in government (β = −0.506). Furthermore, conspiracy beliefs (β = −0.125) and trust in government (β = 0.150) were negatively and positively associated with vaccination intention and behavior respectively. Both factors indirectly affected vaccination behavior through individuals’ satisfaction with COVID-19 interventions and attitudes toward government response. Attitudes were more strongly associated with conspiracy beliefs (β = −0.237), whereas satisfaction was more strongly associated with trust in government (β = 0.509). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the complex interrelationships among conspiracy beliefs, trust in government, and COVID-19 vaccination. Policymakers should invest in transparent, evidence-based communication strategies to counter misinformation during public health crises.