Farmers’ Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment and Formation Mechanism Considering Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Hehuang Valley

The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters attributable to climate change have placed growing pressure on farmers’ livelihoods in ecologically fragile areas. Reducing livelihood vulnerability and strengthening resilience are therefore essential for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Previous research has predominantly focused on assessing livelihood vulnerability and its influencing factors, leaving gaps in understanding regarding the formation mechanisms. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a framework based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, drawing on survey data from 312 farmers in the Hehuang Valley. This research examined the characteristics of farmers’ livelihood vulnerability and employed structural equation modeling to explore its formation mechanism. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to assess how different scenarios affected the farmers’ livelihood vulnerability index (LVI). The LVI differed markedly across regions, age, education, and income. Pathway analysis identified a dual pattern of association from natural disasters to the LVI: they were positively associated with livelihood vulnerability through certain pathways while showing negative associations through other pathways that may reflect coping responses associated with reductions in the LVI. Within the formation mechanism, natural capital appeared more frequently in the long pathways from natural disasters to the LVI with negative action intensity, whereas housing security appeared more frequently in those with positive action intensity. Scenarios combining improvements in education and household income were associated with clear reductions in the LVI, irrespective of other variables. Accordingly, this study proposes measures to reduce livelihood vulnerability by lowering exposure and sensitivity while improving adaptability, thereby supporting resilience building and risk management in vulnerable areas.