How does corporate ESG performance affect the return resilience of infrastructure REITs? An empirical analysis based on spatiotemporal perspective and Chinese data

This study examines the impact of corporate ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance on the return resilience of infrastructure real estate investment trusts (Infra-REITs). Based on transaction data from 66 Chinese Infra-REITs between June 2021 and May 2025, and referencing the GRESB ESG benchmark and reporting framework, corporate ESG performance is categorized into three dimensions: Environmental Performance (E), social performance (S), and governance performance (G), encompassing 17 indicators. The optimal parameter geodetector model was employed to conduct factor detection and interaction analysis, systematically evaluating the impact mechanisms of ESG factors on Infra-REITs’ return resilience. Subsequently, ArcGIS software was used to identify differences in key factors influencing return resilience across eastern, central, and western China. The findings reveal: (1) Labor responsibility, Regional project development, and fund management capabilities are core determinants of return resilience. Project environmental and social performance exhibit significant positive correlations with Infra-REITs return resilience, whereas management performance shows weaker associations—challenging the conventional assumption of universal positive ESG effects; (2) The interactions among ESG dimensions significantly enhance the explanatory power for return resilience, particularly in the impact of Regional project development and labor responsibility on the Resistance index, as well as the influence of carbon footprint and social responsibility on the recovery index. (3) The spatial characteristics of ESG factors lead to differing emphases among Infra-REITs across regions. Infra-REIT projects in eastern regions prioritize social and governance performance, while central region projects emphasize enhancing social performance. Western region projects focus on environmental performance and fund pricing premiums driven by resource scarcity. Based on these findings, policy formulation and operational practices should adopt differentiated strategies tailored to Infra-REIT types and regional characteristics to optimize ESG performance, so as to enhance overall return resilience.