Climate Pressure and Labor Vulnerability in Colombian Caribbean Coastal Cities: Open-Data Evidence from Barranquilla, Cartagena, Santa Marta, and Riohacha

This study examines the association between coastal climate pressure and labor market vulnerability in four Colombian Caribbean cities: Barranquilla, Cartagena, Santa Marta, and Riohacha. Using open-access secondary sources from DANE, IDEAM, UNGRD, INVEMAR, and DNP, the study constructs a 48-observation city-quarter analytical panel and estimates city and period fixed-effects models, distributed-lag specifications, and an event study design. A one-standard-deviation increase in climate pressure was associated with a 0.90 percentage point increase in informality (robust SE = 0.15, p < 0.001) and a 0.25 standard deviation increase in the composite labor vulnerability index (robust SE = 0.04, p < 0.001). The contemporaneous effect remained positive in the distributed-lag model, while the first lag was weaker and the second lag was not statistically distinguishable from zero. Emergency-quarter estimates also indicated a temporary increase in informality relative to the pre-event quarter. Taken together, the results provide empirical evidence consistent with a short-run relationship between hydrometeorological pressure and labor vulnerability in Colombian Caribbean coastal cities.