Poleward Redistribution of Tropical Cyclone Hazards over East Asia

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific have undergone notable changes over recent decades alongside ocean warming and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Using TC best-track data from 1980 to 2025, we identify a pronounced poleward redistribution of TC occurrence across East Asia. This redistribution is characterized by decreasing landfall likelihood at lower latitudes and increasing likelihood at higher latitudes, despite a decline in basin-wide TC genesis frequency. Consistent with this pattern, TC activity exhibits a poleward shift, with reduced occurrence south of 30°N and enhanced activity at higher latitudes, accompanied by more landward- and poleward-oriented tracks. The ratio of landfalling TCs decreases south of 20°N but increases north of 30°N, providing direct quantitative evidence for this redistribution. In addition, TC translation speed has increased modestly, leading to shorter oceanic durations prior to landfall, particularly during the most recent decade, which further modulates coastal hazard patterns. In contrast, no significant long-term trend is found in lifetime maximum intensity, and mean intensity shows a slight weakening. These results suggest that recent changes in TC hazards are primarily driven by shifts in TC tracks and translation characteristics rather than systematic intensification. Overall, our findings highlight a coherent poleward redistribution of TC hazards along the East Asian coast, rather than a uniform increase, with important implications for regional coastal hazard patterns.