Sustainable lake-resort tourism under water-quality constraints: an integrated monitoring-carrying-capacity framework for destination management

Lake resorts depend on recreational water quality as a core destination attribute that shapes visitor experience, health risk, and destination competitiveness. This study developed a management-oriented framework that links water-quality constraints to tourism carrying capacity in an emerging lake-resort system. Using two lakes in the Imantau-Shalkar resort zone in Kazakhstan as a case study, the analysis integrates (i) field hydro-chemistry (major ions, nutrients, organic indicators, and trace metals), (ii) Sentinel-2 remote sensing for intra-seasonal monitoring of turbidity using total suspended solids (TSS) as a practical proxy for water clarity, and (iii) official tourism statistics to characterise demand pressure. The results indicate distinct lake profiles relevant to product differentiation and zoning: Lake Shalkar exhibits higher turbidity and greater vulnerability consistent with a shallow saline system, whereas Lake Imantau remains comparatively stable. When interpreted through carrying-capacity and Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) logic, these constraints support actionable destination-management responses, including adaptive visitor limits, improved sanitation and wastewater controls, shoreline protection, and monitoring-led peak-season regulation. The recommendations align with Kazakhstan’s 2023–2029 Tourism Development Concept and show how data-limited lake destinations can translate water-quality monitoring into practical governance tools that balance tourism growth with ecological resilience.