Insider or outsider: negative performance feedback and top manager succession in the public sector

Facing performance pressure, public organizations frequently experience top manager turnover, yet how they select successors is understudied. This study argues negative performance feedback (NPF) critically influences successor origin. Based on 2,045 TM turnovers , we find that NPF reduces the odds of internal succession by 41.7%. Internal promotion history strengthens external successor selection by signalling a break from discredited routines, while exploratory learning emphasis reinforces external selection as strategic identity. This research advances public management by offering a dynamic, antecedent-based explanation for TM selection, challenging monolithic views of organizational history, and highlighting successor origin as a strategic governance tool.