Middle East Geopolitical Risk and China’s Crude-Oil Import Security: Divergent Responses of Supplier Concentration and Hormuz-Origin Exposure

Supplier concentration and dependence on Hormuz-associated origins describe different dimensions of China’s crude-oil import security. Using 195 monthly observations for January 2010–March 2026, we estimate separate vector error-correction models (VECMs) driven by a geopolitical news-risk proxy combining Israel, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. In the six-variable reference, the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) for 35 reported supplier categories excluding Iran rises by 2.383% after twelve months (95% interval, 0.728% to 3.677%), while the adjusted five-country origin share declines by 0.453 percentage points after one month (−0.916 to −0.069). The initial exposure decline remains supported in models with improved residual diagnostics. Persistent HHI growth is not established across dynamic specifications or under the original adjusted-HHI scenario, and adding Saudi Arabia limits the generalization of the exposure result. These estimates document a baseline contrast between two import-security indicators rather than an identified procurement-substitution mechanism. Connectedness, local projections and spatial statistics provide supporting evidence; post-2024 associations remain exploratory. The results support monitoring supplier balance and source-group dependence separately, with country-origin shares interpreted as proxies rather than observed strait traffic.