Decoupling food insecurity from shocks: A global analysis of food system resilience

Food systems worldwide are increasingly exposed to climate extremes, conflicts, pandemics, and economic shocks, raising concerns about their capacity to safeguard food security and nutrition. Although resilience is now central in global policy debates, empirical evidence on what enables national food systems to withstand shocks remains limited. Here, we analyze a unique multi-country dataset integrating measures of shock severity, governance, economic conditions, social capitals, and food-system characteristics. Using a causal resilience-as-capacity framework and a series of hybrid econometric models, we assess how structural factors and emergent system properties shape countries' ability to limit rises in prevalence of undernourishment when affected by shocks. We show that experiencing more severe shocks does not systematically lead to worse food security: several highly affected countries-particularly in Asia-display encouraging outcomes despite severe disturbances. More generally, countries with stronger resilience capacities and more favorable food-system characteristics fare better during shocks. Especially, within-country improvements in government effectiveness, food-supply redundancy, or GDP per capita significantly reduce deterioration in undernourishment, while stronger social capital supports long-term improvement across countries. Together, these findings indicate that food-system resilience capacities can weaken the relationship between shock severity and food insecurity, with food-system resilience then understood as the ability to decouple food-security outcomes from shock severity. These findings provide one of the first global empirical assessments of the factors underpinning food-system resilience. Strengthening institutional effectiveness, enhancing redundancy, and investing in social capital emerge as critical pathways for building resilient food systems in an increasingly shock-prone world.

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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2026-09-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2536118123
Primary Topic
Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
Type
article
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article

Decoupling food insecurity from shocks: A global analysis of food system resilience

Alejandro Guarín, Mario Herrero, Tim Lang, Alessandro Sasso et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
article

Decoupling food insecurity from shocks: A global analysis of food system resilience

Alejandro Guarín, Mario Herrero, Tim Lang, Alessandro Sasso, Jessica A. Gephart, Élodie Maître d’Hôtel, Andrea Cattaneo, Abdul‐Rahim Abdulai, Richard A. Nyiawung, U. Rashid Sumaila, Jessica Fanzo, Christopher D. Golden, Brice Even, Christophe Béné, Jane Battersby, Trang Nguyen, José Luis Vivero Pol, Preetmoninder Lidder, Jing Zhang, Lal Rattan, Michaela Saisana, Patrick Webb, Bart de Steenhuijsen Piters, Andreea C. Nowak, Greg Collins, Sheryl Hendriks, Timothy Frankerberger, Cuong M. Nguyen
article en

Abstract

Food systems worldwide are increasingly exposed to climate extremes, conflicts, pandemics, and economic shocks, raising concerns about their capacity to safeguard food security and nutrition. Although resilience is now central in global policy debates, empirical evidence on what enables national food systems to withstand shocks remains limited. Here, we analyze a unique multi-country dataset integrating measures of shock severity, governance, economic conditions, social capitals, and food-system characteristics. Using a causal resilience-as-capacity framework and a series of hybrid econometric models, we assess how structural factors and emergent system properties shape countries' ability to limit rises in prevalence of undernourishment when affected by shocks. We show that experiencing more severe shocks does not systematically lead to worse food security: several highly affected countries-particularly in Asia-display encouraging outcomes despite severe disturbances. More generally, countries with stronger resilience capacities and more favorable food-system characteristics fare better during shocks. Especially, within-country improvements in government effectiveness, food-supply redundancy, or GDP per capita significantly reduce deterioration in undernourishment, while stronger social capital supports long-term improvement across countries. Together, these findings indicate that food-system resilience capacities can weaken the relationship between shock severity and food insecurity, with food-system resilience then understood as the ability to decouple food-security outcomes from shock severity. These findings provide one of the first global empirical assessments of the factors underpinning food-system resilience. Strengthening institutional effectiveness, enhancing redundancy, and investing in social capital emerge as critical pathways for building resilient food systems in an increasingly shock-prone world.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 123(38)
World Food Programme (IT), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR), Center for Global Development (US), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT), International Maritime Organization (GB), Harvard University (US), Alliance Bioversity International - CIAT (IT), Johns Hopkins University (US), University of Waterloo (CA), University of Cape Town (ZA), St George's, University of London (GB), University of Washington (US), Cornell University (US), European Commission (BE), University of Oxford (GB), Graduate School Experimental Plant Sciences (NL), New York State College of Agriculture & Life Sciences (US), Benchmark Research (United States) (US), Bioversity International (CO), International Geographical Union (ZA), International Center for Tropical Agriculture (KE), WWF Cameroon (CM), Carbon180 (US), Impact (CA), University of Greenwich (GB), University of Pretoria (ZA), Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (US), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
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