Spatio-temporal evaluation of land use and cover change and prediction of habitat quality in Estuarine Delta National Parks: a case study of the Yellow River Estuary National Park

As a critical component of China’s national park system, the Yellow River Estuary National Park exhibits a unique habitat evolution mechanism shaped by the interplay between anthropogenic disturbances and ecological restoration within a land–sea interaction zone. This study simulates land use and land cover change and assesses habitat quality dynamics from 2003 to 2023, with scenario projections for 2033, by integrating the InVEST and PLUS models. The results reveal a dual-process mechanism underlying habitat change: urbanization drives the expansion of construction land, which encroaches upon cropland and barren land, leading to widespread habitat degradation and fragmentation; concurrently, wetland restoration and water body expansion, driven by ecological policies, partially offset these losses by locally enhancing habitat quality in coastal zones. This coexistence of degradation and restoration shapes a spatially heterogeneous pattern, where low-quality habitat expands and consolidates around urban agglomerations, while high-quality habitat becomes increasingly fragmented and confined to remnant wetland patches. Scenario projections indicate a continuation of these trends, with further expansion of low-quality habitat and sustained fragmentation of high-quality areas, suggesting limited ecological resilience under current land use trajectories. By uncovering the process-based linkages between land use transformation and habitat quality response, this study provides a mechanistic understanding of estuarine habitat evolution and offers a scientific foundation for spatial planning and ecological governance in integrated land–sea national parks. These insights contribute to broader discourses on land quality and ecosystem service sustainability in deltaic social-ecological systems.