Differentiating the Role of Construction and Non-construction Affluence in China’s Ecological Footprint and Built-up Land Footprint: A Fourier ADL Analysis

This study examines the long-run determinants of China’s ecological footprint (EF) and its built-up land footprint (BF) components using annual data from 1970 to 2024. Using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, the analysis includes construction value added (CVA), gross domestic product excluding construction (GDPCE), primary energy consumption (PEC) and urbanization as explanatory variables. The Fourier autoregressive distributed lag cointegration method is applied to capture smooth structural shifts, followed by dynamic ordinary least squares estimation. Results confirm cointegration among EF, BF and their drivers. CVA and PEC have significant positive effects on both EF and BF, highlighting the environmental cost of construction-led growth and energy intensity. In contrast, GDPCE shows a negative association, suggesting relative efficiency in non-construction sectors. Urbanization consistently amplifies ecological stress, especially in built-up land expansion. The findings highlight the need for sector-specific sustainability strategies and urban planning reforms to mitigate affluence-driven environmental degradation. This suggests that while construction-driven growth heavily intensifies ecological and spatial pressures, sectors outside of construction are moving towards greater resource efficiency. Therefore, a key policy recommendation is to implement targeted incentives to rapidly shift investment from the resource-intensive construction sector towards GDPCE-related sectors, accelerating the decoupling of economic expansion from environmental degradation.