Mapping and balancing tensions, conflicts and trade-offs in the European extractive sector in its sustainability transition: Insights from a multi-actor Delphi study

The European extractive sector operates within a dense socio-technical and regulatory environment where rising mineral demand, sustainability expectations and geopolitical pressures intersect. These dynamics generate persistent tensions, conflicts and trade-offs that limit the sector's contribution to a climate-neutral and strategically resilient European economy. Previous research has addressed individual challenges, but integrative assessments across economic, environmental, social and governance dimensions remain limited. This study addresses this gap by applying a Delphi method with a heterogeneous panel of European experts to identify, prioritise and contextualise these frictions through the SUMEX (Sustainable Management in Extractive Industries) sustainability framework. Results indicate a clear hierarchy of frictions. Social legitimacy appears to be the most influential source of disputes, followed by governance and permitting aspects, economic feasibility constraints, land-use conflicts and local environmental impacts. The panel identified mutually reinforcing frictions, such as those between social legitimacy concerns and permitting complexity, that were perceived as influencing the feasibility of the sector's sustainability transformation. The study concludes that technological optimisation and incremental policy adjustments alone are insufficient for this transformation. The findings suggest that addressing these frictions requires long-term, systemic and governance-centred strategies that strengthen social legitimacy, enhance institutional capacity, support credible and co-produced evidence, and embed benefit-sharing more systematically in project development.