Minimizing climate change adaptation trade-offs in African rangelands

Abstract Climate change is intensifying precipitation variability in southern African rangelands, challenging existing systems of pastoral management. Simultaneously, developments in weather forecast accuracy and access may enable pastoralists to effectively adapt to these conditions. Here we use a spatial agent-based model to study the benefits of weather forecasting for adaptive rangeland management with and without concurrent risk-smoothing interventions that buffer livestock losses during poor rainfall years. Given empirical and projected conditions across seven southern African countries, we show that precipitation variability can reduce average economic well-being and worsen inequality among pastoralists; that, when paired with the adaptive use of weather forecasting, risk-smoothing interventions such as the provision of supplemental fodder can buffer these effects without overstocking; and that risk smoothing is critical for scaling adaptive management practices. Overall, we show how pairing forecasts and risk smoothing can reduce trade-offs inherent to each intervention alone, supporting climate change adaptation at scale.