The Causal Effect of Legislative Service on the Postparliamentary Career

Abstract Do members of parliament (MPs) benefit occupationally from serving in parliament? Although previous studies suggest career enhancement, they lack comparable control groups enabling causal inference. Other studies find monetary benefits but rely on unique data sources. I employed regression-discontinuity design to compare narrowly elected and defeated German Bundestag candidates (2009, 2013). Despite adequate statistical power (82% to detect moderate effects) and Germany’s institutional features favoring career returns, I find no local average treatment effect on postparliamentary occupational status or management positions. Strikingly, half of the defeated candidates reached top management anyway, suggesting that candidate selection dominates treatment effects. This challenges revolving-door narratives and implies that parliamentary careers reflect intrinsic motivations rather than financial returns.