Habitat suitability and active component responses of Eleutherococcus senticosus under climate change: implications for conservation and wild tending

Introduction Eleutherococcus senticosus (Rupr. & Maxim.) Maxim. is an important medicinal shrub with increasing demand for its wild resources. However, the responses of its future habitat suitability and medicinal quality to global environmental change remain poorly understood. Methods Future climate projections under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, land-use dynamics, HPLC fingerprint data, and ensemble species distribution models were integrated to evaluate the habitat suitability, medicinal quality, and conservation priorities of E. senticosus in Heilongjiang Province. Results Climate variables, particularly Bio18, Bio11, and Bio08, were identified as the dominant drivers of habitat suitability, whereas land-use change exerted comparatively limited effects on habitat dynamics. Future climate change was projected to expand the overall suitable habitat of E. senticosus in Heilongjiang Province while reducing the extent of highly suitable habitats. The areas with high contents of the five major bioactive compounds, namely coniferin, syringin, eleutheroside E, isofraxidin, and syringaresinol-4′-O-β-D-glucopyranoside, were all projected to increase under future climate scenarios. Priority conservation analysis based on habitat suitability showed that existing nature reserves covered only 12.899% of the identified priority conservation areas. Wild tending priority areas, identified by integrating habitat suitability and medicinal component distributions, were mainly concentrated in the Lesser Khingan Mountains under current climate conditions but were projected to shift toward the western Lesser Khingan Mountains under future climate change. Discussion These findings provide theoretical support for the conservation, wild tending, standardized management, and sustainable utilization of E. senticosus .