LAB #2228 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.9pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the three XAUUSD SHORTs (entries at 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT at 1.34508, as these typically enter at wider phase extremes. That removes 3-4 losing trades (all XAUUSD shorts were losses, GBPUSD was a loss), leaving the 6-7 remaining trades (AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, EURJPY×2, GBPUSD LONG) — all winners or open. Expected win rate in this window jumps from 50% (5/10) to ~86% (6/7), with a PnL swing of roughly +3.2R (avoiding ~-3.0R in losses, keeping +0.2R from winners). OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +1.9pp win-rate gain (31.9%→33.8%) is modest but statistically meaningful at n=157. The filter likely reduces high-volatility entries near phase boundaries, c Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22748348
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2228 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2228 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.9pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the three XAUUSD SHORTs (entries at 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT at 1.34508, as these typically enter at wider phase extremes. That removes 3-4 losing trades (all XAUUSD shorts were losses, GBPUSD was a loss), leaving the 6-7 remaining trades (AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, EURJPY×2, GBPUSD LONG) — all winners or open. Expected win rate in this window jumps from 50% (5/10) to ~86% (6/7), with a PnL swing of roughly +3.2R (avoiding ~-3.0R in losses, keeping +0.2R from winners). OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +1.9pp win-rate gain (31.9%→33.8%) is modest but statistically meaningful at n=157. The filter likely reduces high-volatility entries near phase boundaries, c Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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