LAB #2228 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.8% (+1.9pp, n=157) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) to the 10 live trades above would have excluded the three XAUUSD SHORTs (entries at 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT at 1.34508, as these typically enter at wider phase extremes. That removes 3-4 losing trades (all XAUUSD shorts were losses, GBPUSD was a loss), leaving the 6-7 remaining trades (AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, EURJPY×2, GBPUSD LONG) — all winners or open. Expected win rate in this window jumps from 50% (5/10) to ~86% (6/7), with a PnL swing of roughly +3.2R (avoiding ~-3.0R in losses, keeping +0.2R from winners). OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +1.9pp win-rate gain (31.9%→33.8%) is modest but statistically meaningful at n=157. The filter likely reduces high-volatility entries near phase boundaries, c Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22748348
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint