LAB #2148 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.0% to 42.1% (+10.1pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.0% to 42.1% (+10.1pp, n=361) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-6-confirmation filter would have blocked the three XAUUSD SHORT entries (rizzy5m at 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) — all closed as losses — and likely the GBPUSD SHORT (rizzy5m, loss) if its confirmation count was below 6. That removes 4 losing trades from the 10 listed, leaving the 3 wins and 1 open (USDJPY) intact, plus the two other wins (EURJPY LONG, GBPUSD LONG) unaffected. Win rate in this window would jump from 3/9 closed (33%) to 3/5 closed (60%), and PnL would improve by roughly the sum of those four losses (estimated −2.1R total, assuming average loss ~0.5R each). The open USDJPY trade would remain unchanged, so no adverse effect on current exposure. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter should reduce false entries from low-conviction setups, likely lifting win ra Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22741965
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint