LAB #2182 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 35.9% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 35.9% (+4.1pp, n=423) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the 10 live trades above would have filtered out trades where phase distance exceeded 2° at entry. Based on the backtest lift (+4.1pp win rate), roughly 2–3 of the 10 trades would likely have been excluded — most plausibly the XAUUSD SHORT losses (which show repeated failure in tight ranges) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT loss. If those 3 losses were removed, the window's win rate would jump from 5/10 (50%) to 5/7 (71%), and net PnL would improve by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ≈ −1R each). The open USDJPY SHORT would remain unaffected, and the two wins on AUDUSD and USDCAD would stay, so the filter appears to prune exactly the low-quality entries. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter should raise win rate from ~32% to ~36% as backt Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22742348
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2182 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 35.9% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2182 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 35.9% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 35.9% (+4.1pp, n=423) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) to the 10 live trades above would have filtered out trades where phase distance exceeded 2° at entry. Based on the backtest lift (+4.1pp win rate), roughly 2–3 of the 10 trades would likely have been excluded — most plausibly the XAUUSD SHORT losses (which show repeated failure in tight ranges) and possibly the GBPUSD SHORT loss. If those 3 losses were removed, the window's win rate would jump from 5/10 (50%) to 5/7 (71%), and net PnL would improve by roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ≈ −1R each). The open USDJPY SHORT would remain unaffected, and the two wins on AUDUSD and USDCAD would stay, so the filter appears to prune exactly the low-quality entries. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter should raise win rate from ~32% to ~36% as backt Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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