From Historical Performance to Scenario-Based Forecasting: Assessing Fiscal Gains from GovTech Maturity in Saudi Arabia

This study examines the relationship between GovTech maturity and non-oil revenue in Saudi Arabia over 2016–2024 and assesses the potential fiscal implications of continued digital government development through 2030. Using annual data on the United Nations E-Government Development Index (EGDI), the World Bank GovTech Maturity Index (GTMI), and government revenue, the analysis combines descriptive and correlation evidence with complementary level-based and first-differenced OLS specifications, supported by diagnostic and robustness checks. The results reveal a positive structural association between GovTech maturity and non-oil revenue in level specifications, particularly for GTMI. Importantly, this relationship does not translate into a statistically significant contemporaneous annual association when the variables are examined in first differences, suggesting that the fiscal relevance of GovTech may operate through cumulative, institutional, and longer-horizon channels rather than through immediate year-to-year revenue effects. Building on this distinction, the study develops conditional scenario projections for 2025–2030, showing that model-implied fiscal gains increase as GovTech maturity advances toward its measurement frontier, although the corresponding monetary outcomes remain sensitive to alternative GovTech weights and fiscal-growth assumptions. The study therefore contributes evidence that distinguishes historical structural co-movement from short-run fiscal transmission and provides a transparent scenario-based framework for assessing the potential fiscal value of digital government maturity. The findings suggest that future fiscal returns will depend increasingly on the effective utilization, integration, and institutional embedding of existing digital government capabilities rather than on further expansion of digital infrastructure alone.