LAB #2212 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 43.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 43.8% (+11.9pp, n=121) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION-phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have blocked roughly 4-5 of the 7 closed trades (the rizzy5m shorts on XAUUSD and GBPUSD, plus the EURJPY short and possibly the AUDUSD long, depending on phase alignment). The blocked trades include 3 losses and 1 win, so the win rate would improve from 5/10 (50%) to roughly 4/5 or 4/6 (67-80%) on the remaining trades. PnL delta is positive but modest — you avoid the XAUUSD losses (largest drawdowns) while keeping the AUDUSD and USDCAD wins. The open USDJPY short would likely survive the filter, so no change there. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filter should lift win rate from ~32% toward ~44% as backtested, but the real benefit is variance reduction — you cut the worst-performing phase (likely DISTRIBUTION Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com