GOVERNANCE, CONFLICT, AND THE PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE IN AFRICA: A SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL DRIVERS AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT MODELS

Purpose of study: This study examines the relationship between governance failure, conflict, and prospects for sustainable peace in Africa. It analyses how institutional weakness, political exclusion, neopatrimonialism, social exclusion, and security-sector failures contribute to conflict, while assessing mediation, negotiation, and transitional justice through a social transformation perspective. Methodology: The study adopts a qualitative, conceptual and documentary research approach. It synthesises governance and peacebuilding literature alongside evidence from selected African cases, including the Central African Republic, Sahel, Ethiopia, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Sudan, and South Sudan. The analysis evaluates conflict-management models using social transformation criteria. Findings: The analysis establishes that African conflicts are not inevitable consequences of poverty, ethnic diversity, resource scarcity, or cultural differences, but are significantly shaped by governance choices and institutional failures. Five interconnected dimensions emerge: institutional weakness and state fragility, political exclusion and electoral manipulation, neopatrimonial and predatory governance, ethnic and social exclusion, and security sector abuse. These failures intensify grievances, weaken legitimacy, and create conditions for violent mobilisation. Mediation and negotiation can effectively halt violence and create political space but may encourage elite capture when participation is narrow. Transitional justice promotes accountability, truth, dignity, and reconciliation but may inadequately address structural inequalities when focused primarily on individual perpetrators. Conclusion: Sustainable peace in Africa is fundamentally a governance and social transformation project. Mediation, negotiation, and transitional justice are most effective when embedded within broader reforms addressing exclusion, inequality, institutional weakness, accountability, and social relations. Strengthening inclusive and capable institutions, supported by African regional peace architectures, offers a more durable pathway from conflict management to positive peace.