When preferences don’t match choices: the role of green space and transport connectivity in urban housing mismatch

As urbanisation and suburbanisation continue to increase, coupled with the advocacy of high-density development in urban areas, we examine whether urban dwellers prefer this type of housing. This study examines the discrepancy between housing choices and preferences, conceptualized as housing match and mismatch within a housing-ladder perspective. Using data from a population survey with a random selection of 1,768 respondents in Cologne and Hamburg, Germany, we analyse preferences for houses and flats, and the factors associated with mismatch. The results show that preferences for houses and flats are balanced in the cities studied. However, housing mismatch, when preferences do not match choices, affects over a third of respondents, particularly those in lower socio-economic classes. The main predictors of housing mismatch are a lack of green space for flat-dwellers desiring houses and poor transport connectivity for house-dwellers desiring flats. We argue that this introduces a place-sensitive dimension to the housing ladder, where mismatch emerges through the interaction between dwelling-specific preferences and neighbourhood conditions. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing between housing preferences and choices in urban planning and highlight the need to improve well-being by matching housing supply with residents’ aspirations.