Scenarios for Angola’s Electricity Transition: Generation Capacity, Electricity Production, and Environmental Sustainability

This paper presents a prospective multivariate analysis of Angola’s electricity sector over the period 2024–2050, assessing the economic, demographic, and environmental impacts of three energy transition pathways: Baseline, Green Transition, and Restricted Development. Using energy system optimization models complemented by parametric robustness tests, the study projects a rapid increase in electricity demand, driven by population growth, with Angola’s population expected to reach approximately 86 million by 2050. Under the Green Transition Scenario, electricity demand reaches 283 TWh, corresponding to a per capita consumption of 3350 kWh. Although large-scale hydropower remains the backbone of the electricity system, accounting 37–51% of total generation, solar photovoltaics emerge as the leading technology for capacity expansion, accounting for up to 33% of installed capacity and achieving the lowest levelized cost of electricity, ranging from 19.2 to 25.5 EUR/MWh. By contrast, diesel generation and new hydropower plants exhibit substantially higher generation costs. In isolated rural grids, diesel–solar hybrid systems reduce electricity generation costs by more than 50% while significantly lowering carbon intensity. Sensitivity analysis shows that overall system costs are strongly influenced by the discount rate and macroeconomic assumptions but remain comparatively robust to technological uncertainties. These findings highlight the importance of large-scale solar deployment and decentralized hybrid systems as key strategies for achieving a cost-effective, low-carbon electricity transition in Angola.