LAB #2225 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 36.0% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 36.0% (+4.1pp, n=422) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter of ≤2° would have excluded the three XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4048.74, 4051.79, 4066.35) if their phase distance exceeded the threshold — likely, given their clustered timing and repeated failure. It would also potentially exclude the GBPUSD SHORT loss (1.34508) if its phase was wide. Removing those four losses from the 10-trade window flips the record from 5W/5L to 5W/1L (83% win rate) — a dramatic PnL improvement, though the sample is tiny and the filter may also have excluded some winners (e.g., EURJPY SHORT win) if their phase was wide. Expected net delta: +4–6% win rate on this window, but with high variance due to n=10. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) will likely reduce trade frequency by 20–40% while improving per-t Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22748273
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint