A regime-aware dual-porosity model of soil radon transport: blind pre-registered validation on 15 volcanic and tectonic sites and an analytical bound on permeability-driven amplification

A model of Rn-222 and Rn-220 transport in the unsaturated zone, written to answer one question: can soil radon be used to monitor volcanic unrest and bradyseism? This record contains the preprint (19 pages) and a zip with the model (one Python file, 8,543 lines), the scripts that verify it, and the sealed files of the blind test: I froze the predictions for 15 volcanic and tectonic sites before seeing the measured values. The transport regime came out right on 13 sites out of 15. Amplitude and lag fell outside the bands I had pre-registered, and in the paper I show that no predictor built on these inputs does better.Source code under the MIT License, manuscript and figures under CC BY 4.0. To check the verification, run the scripts in verification/.