Conclusions from an integral equation about the prevalence-odds in the illness-death model for chronic diseases

This research note explores the mathematical structure of the prevalence-odds integral equation for chronic disease dynamics recently formulated by Saem and Brinks (2024). We provide a rigorous derivation of the Brunet- Struchiner partial differential equation from the integral representation under duration-independent mortality. Furthermore, we examine the strict limiting conditions under which the integral collapses into the classical epidemiological heuristic that prevalence-odds is the product of incidence and disease duration.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22745833
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Type
preprint
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Conclusions from an integral equation about the prevalence-odds in the illness-death model for chronic diseases

Ralph Brinks
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
preprint

Conclusions from an integral equation about the prevalence-odds in the illness-death model for chronic diseases

Ralph Brinks
preprint en

Abstract

This research note explores the mathematical structure of the prevalence-odds integral equation for chronic disease dynamics recently formulated by Saem and Brinks (2024). We provide a rigorous derivation of the Brunet- Struchiner partial differential equation from the integral representation under duration-independent mortality. Furthermore, we examine the strict limiting conditions under which the integral collapses into the classical epidemiological heuristic that prevalence-odds is the product of incidence and disease duration.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Witten/Herdecke University (DE), Rheumazentrum Ruhrgebiet (DE)
Good health and well-being
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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