The Unintended Consequences of Large‐Scale Irrigation: A Multi‐Decadal Analysis of Environmental Degradation and Social Conflict in the Middle Awash, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT This study provides a multi‐decadal analysis of unintended environmental and socioeconomic consequences of large‐scale irrigation in Ethiopia's Middle Awash Valley. A mixed‐methods approach integrated soil and groundwater sampling (120 soil samples from two depths at 60 points; 25 piezometers), laboratory analysis, long‐term hydrological records, and semi‐structured interviews with 25 Afar pastoralist key informants. The findings reveal that excessive irrigation and inadequate drainage have raised groundwater tables from > 10 to < 2.5 m, affecting 72% of cultivated land. Capillary rise from the shallow saline water table (ECw averaging 4.97–6.43 dS/m) deposited 351 kg/m 2 of salt over seven dry months, strongly correlated with evaporative demand ( R 2 = 0.98, p < 0.001). Socioeconomically, the project displaced an estimated 20,000 pastoralists from dry‐season grazing lands, with 89% of respondents reporting personal displacement and 88% noting intensified resource conflicts. This paradox of agricultural growth alongside ecological and social vulnerability stems from inadequate integrated water management, insufficient investment in drainage and exclusionary governance. Sustainable irrigation in semiarid regions requires precision technologies, site‐specific soil remediation and inclusive participatory governance that recognise customary land rights and ensures fair compensation for affected communities.