LAB #2147 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.6% (+0.6pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.6% (+0.6pp, n=233) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a LONDON_OPEN session filter would have excluded all 10 live trades listed, since none fall within a strict London open window (typically 08:00–09:00 UTC or 09:00–10:00 BST). The current window shows 3 wins, 5 losses, 1 open, and 1 pending — removing all would eliminate both the wins and losses, yielding a net PnL change of roughly +0 (no trades taken). However, the backtest claims +0.6pp win-rate improvement on n=233, but this live sample is too small and biased (all trades are outside the filter) to confirm any real edge — the filter would simply have prevented all activity here, not improved outcomes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a LONDON_OPEN filter would drastically reduce trade frequency (likely by 70–90% if applied globally), which could improve win rate per trade but slash tot Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22741961
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2147 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.6% (+0.6pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2147 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.6% (+0.6pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.6% (+0.6pp, n=233) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a LONDON_OPEN session filter would have excluded all 10 live trades listed, since none fall within a strict London open window (typically 08:00–09:00 UTC or 09:00–10:00 BST). The current window shows 3 wins, 5 losses, 1 open, and 1 pending — removing all would eliminate both the wins and losses, yielding a net PnL change of roughly +0 (no trades taken). However, the backtest claims +0.6pp win-rate improvement on n=233, but this live sample is too small and biased (all trades are outside the filter) to confirm any real edge — the filter would simply have prevented all activity here, not improved outcomes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a LONDON_OPEN filter would drastically reduce trade frequency (likely by 70–90% if applied globally), which could improve win rate per trade but slash tot Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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